2013 Predictions Part 1: Lists!

Properly cited image courtesy of http://oneims.com/blog

2012 saw the start of this Blog, followed by a 4-month pause for academic pursuits. Now that the Lunar New Year is upon us and courses are over, I look forward to 2013.

This first post summarizes my favourite list predictions for 2013. Some have three points, some six, some thirteen! Several of those points receive a closer look in Part 2.

ADVERTISING SPENDING TRENDS

Joe Fernandez of Warc.com revealed their Consensus Ad Forecast results for 2013:

1. Worldwide Growth: Global advertising expenditure is expected to increase 4% in 2013.
2. Emerging Markets Lead: The BRIC economies are set to be the biggest with Russia estimated to experience a 12.3% leap, followed by China on 10.9%, Brazil on 9.8% and India on 8.5%.
3. Online Continues: By channel, the internet is predicted to increase demand in excess of 13% - a moderation from 14.4% last year.
4. TV Maintains: Television ad revenues should rise by 3.2% in 2013.
5. Print Declines: Newspaper and magazine ad sales are pegged to contract by at least 2.5%.
6. Lack of Major Media Events in 2013: “In 2012, the industry benefited from the Olympics and the US presidential election. In 2013, we’re all keen to see how advertising holds up without these quadrennial factors.”

CONSUMER DEMAND & RETAIL TRENDS

It's that time of year again — time to take a stab at what's going to matter in the year ahead as technology continues to influence how we work and live.

          – David Armano, Edelman Digital

Emily Tan of Campaign Magazine passed along JWT's 10 Trends Technology is Having on the Consumer Lifestyle: 

1. Play as a competitive advantage: “Brands will benefit …by encouraging consumers to see their day-to-day environment through a more playful lens”
2. The super stress era: “Response to mounting and multiplying stressors faced by society today …Brands….can become catalysts for stress reduction.”
3. Intelligent objects: “The internet of things is finally mainstream, with more and more ordinary items becoming interactive, intelligent objects” including watches, goggles and glasses
4. Predictive personalization: “With speedier and more affordable data-analysis available, brands will increasingly be able to predict customer behaviour, needs or wants”
5. The mobile fingerprint: “Retailers, handset manufacturers, telecom providers, software developers and other marketers will need to consider how the consumer’s increasingly intimate connection to the phone will change behaviours, sensitivities and mindset.”
6. Everything is retail: “Shopping is shifting from an in-store, physical activity to one that can take place just about anywhere at any time”
7. Sensory explosion: “retail outlets will gradually transition to showrooms that emphasise experiences over selling as online commerce continues to grow.”
8. Peer power: “While online peer-to-peer networks date back at least to the early days of eBay and Napster in the 1990s, the market is now expanding well beyond goods into services, impacting hospitality and tourism”
9. Going public in private: “As living life publically becomes a default, people are increasingly conscious of controlling their personal online brand and have, in turn, come up with ways to carve out private spaces in their lives”
10. Health and happiness: “Less about vanity and toned abs, health is now increasingly viewed to be about happiness, with the rising notion that a happier person is a healthier person.” 

Ad-Age’s special report highlighted What’s Trending in the Retail Industry in 2013: 

1. Shoppable Media: “Video or print vehicles that encourage customers to immediately purchase products using various technologies, will become an increasingly popular way to do that. 
2. In-Store Technology: “Retailers of all stripes will continue to add tablets, digital signage and oversize, interactive panels. 
3. The grass is always greener: “By opening physical stores…online players are welcoming showrooming….As much as consumers crave the convenience of online shopping, there are still times when they'd like to step into a physical location.” 

The art of prophecy is very difficult, especially with respect to the future.

          – Mark Twain

Derrick Daye of Branding Strategy Insider identified 13 critical trends for brand managers in 2013 – although many were true in 2012 as well:

1. The Expectation Economy: “Over the past decade, customer expectations have increased on average by 28%. But brands…have kept up by only 8%.”
2. Me-tail: "Consumers’ heightened awareness of their actual control” means “customization will become an even more important brand differentiator"
3. (E)tail Everywhere: "Online retailing increases daily"
4. Siri-ously Soon: "Voice assistants...will be designed and incorporated into more devices to meet consumers’ increasing expectations for immediate and customized support."
5. The Known and the Branded: "Real brands will become rarer.”
6. Story Telling Tales: Understanding gaps in “how the brand is seen by consumers, can…identify unique stories, histories and tales that will differentiate, entertain, and engage.”
7. It’s Not Going to Get Any Easier Being Green: “Watch for significant increases in total sustainability…in the consumers’ decision process.”
8. Social Susceptibility: “Brands are watching the ‘de-friending’”
9. Mobile Screen Tests: “Brands will need to create carefully targeted campaigns for [mobile] platforms.”
10. App Savants: “Consumers will take greater advantage of applications. But this year those typically small, specialized programs downloaded into mobile devices will move beyond games, GPS, and media, to more personalized applications that monitor, remind, suggest, learn, and know their users’ profiles and preferences.”
11. Facebook Is a Given: “Brands will have to graduate from posting pictures, collecting friends, and/or offering coupons.”
12. Saturation Leveling: “Outreach streams [are] dangerously close to saturation.”
13. Engagement Empowers: “Non-engaged customers are a brand’s most vulnerable assets. Period.”

2013 will be a pivotal year for digital marketers with significant shifts taking place with how we reach consumers. OK, we say that about every year. But this year its true, honest!

          – Will Margiloff, IgnitonOne

DIGITAL MARKETING TRENDS

Ashok Lalla of Campaign Magazine wrote The Marketers’ Outlook on Digital Marketing: 

1. Digital is central to Marketing conversations but still peripheral to Marketing planning: “Everyone accepts that Digital…often, after most of the marketing budget has been committed to television and print.”
2. Digital is seen as a channel of spreading the marketing messages and campaigns: “Most marketers see it as another channel to push out their messages. This leads to the rush to upload TV commercials on Youtube and share press campaigns on Facebook.” 
3. Social media is the newest flavour of Digital: “Determining what real ‘engagement’ is…leaves most marketers flummoxed.” 
4. More numbers is better: “Most marketers …fall into the trap of seeking numbers. And deriving comfort in growth of page views, downloads, fans, followers, shares, likes, retweets…till they realize [they] do little to support their overall marketing goals.” 
5. Positivity tinged with paranoia: “…the paranoia of not being able to cope with an increasingly impatient and vocal audience.” 
6. Digital is the future, but is that future here yet? “This half-and-half mindset of marketers makes it that much harder for them to decide …whether the time is right for them to commit budgets and pride of place to Digital.” 

David Armano, Managing Director at Edelman Digital wrote Six Social-Digital Trends for 2013 for the Harvard Business Review: 

1. The Content Economy: “[Google & Facebook] algorithms are good enough now that the most compelling content dominates search results.” 
2. Cyborg Central: “Google Glasses are just a preview of what we'll see more of in 2013 as we begin to mesh machines with humans.” 
3. The Smobile Web: “Social + mobile…means your customers, coworkers and colleagues expect their digital experiences will be optimized.” 
4. Sensory Intelligence: “Sensors will be everywhere…They will become a part of our lives and will tie into our existing devices and networks.” 
5. Social Commerce: “The idea of social commerce isn't new, but signs indicate that 2013 may be the year it actually begins to coalesce.” 
6. Data Surplus, Insight Deficit: “”There aren't enough qualified human beings (analysts, sociologists, strategists, etc) to mine all this data. But this won't last for long.” 

Thomas Husson of Forrester Research categorized ten of his 2013 Mobile Trends for Marketers in to two major groups: 

Will Margiloff, CEO of IgnitionOne, made Five Bets On How Digital Marketing Will Change in 2013: 

1. The age of the PC is over, so get used to it: “2013 will mark a true pivot point when the market penetration of smartphones and tablets will finally cause marketers…to step up their games.”  
2. The end of speculative money: “The irrational spigot of VC money in ad tech has finally been turned down” Agencies will begin to give up media buying: Letting 3rd-party specialists handle these activities. 
3. Agencies will marry creatives and quants: “Where we are headed is a weird yet ultimately fulfilling marriage between the two” 
4. Data for data's sake will end: “Next year the world will realize it’s useless unless it can be automated and applied.” 
5. Rimma Kats of Mobile Marketer made her Top mobile predictions for 2013: 
6. Context king: Brands will target messaging to those closest to their stores. 
7. Breakout star: “Emerging technologies such as augmented reality will take the lead next year.” 
8. Mobile experiences: “We'll see a big move into more immersive input – a gestural, voice, audio – and output – augmented reality, pico projectors – related to mobile and connected devices.”  

Judy Shapiro of Ad Age offered five points in Get Ready for Five Big Sentiment Shifts in 2013: Redefining Privacy, Reach, Big Data and Trust: 

1. From privacy to control: "It's dawning on consumers that it's best to opt out of most online activities because any online action can unleash a torrent of unwelcome, privacy-busting ads."  
2. From reach to relevancy: "In the rush to reach large audiences, achieving quality engagement sustainable over time is another matter."  
3. From big data to GOOD data: "Platforms deliver great behavioral-based data but they don't do as well at inferring true consumer intent."  
4. From push to pull: "The inflection point is close at hand where consumers may fall off the "creepy cliff" as they are subjected to more invasive and pervasive ads."  
5. From platform-powered to people-powered marketing: "You simply can't platform your way into great marketing." 

While 2011 and 2012 were the years of trial and error, 2013 will help marketers cement their initiatives and better reach consumers. Industry experts agree that the space will gain even more momentum next year. 

         - Rimma Kats, Mobile Marketer

Stay tuned for Part 2 and the Future of Branding series for greater depth.